What is the likelihood that the Fed will change the Federal target rate at upcoming FOMC meetings, according to interest rate traders? Use CME FedWatch to track the probabilities of changes to the Fed rate, as implied by 30-Day Fed Funds futures prices.

Explore probabilities for FOMC rate moves, compare target ranges or view historical rate data. Treasury Analytics Analyze deliverable baskets, CTD/OTR securities, futures/cash yield curves, inter-commodity spreads, and more.

The CME FedWatch Tool analyzes the probability of FOMC rate moves for upcoming meetings. Using 30-Day Fed Fund futures pricing data, which have long been relied upon to express the market’s views on the likelihood of changes in U.S. monetary policy, the tool visualizes both current and historical probabilities of various FOMC rate change ...

Using this information based on the federal funds rate, CME Group created the CME FedWatch Tool to act as a barometer for the market’s expectation of potential changes to the fed funds target rate while assessing potential Fed movements around FOMC meetings.

Jun 20, 2023 · The FedWatch tool from CME Group has emerged as a reliable resource for determining Federal Reserve rate moves. The interest rates indicator uses Fed Funds’ futures prices to display current and historical probabilities of FOMC rate outcomes for a …

Oct 8, 2024 · Fed Funds futures averaged 700K contracts/day, also the second highest all-time monthly ADV. Looking ahead, markets are currently pricing in a series of rate cuts over the next 12 months, including the next five on the calendar.

Effective interest rate risk management demands liquid markets. That’s why institutions around the world turn to CME Group, home to the deepest centralized pool of liquidity for SOFR, Fed Funds, U.S. Treasuries and more. Plus, flexible execution, unrivaled capital efficiencies, and the safety of CME Clearing.

Jun 6, 2024 · By referring to CME Group’s deep and liquid market for Fed Funds futures, the CME FedWatch Tool can translate market prices into expectations for the level of rates in the future and, consequently, any hikes or cuts that the Federal Reserve might make to its target rate.

Jan 24, 2025 · Get a detailed look at the Fed Funds futures probability tree calculations used by the FedWatch Tool to determine the probabilities of a Fed rate move at upcoming FOMC meetings. Calculation model example

Feb 2, 2022 · Fed Funds futures are pricing four or five rate hikes in 2022, followed by two or three more in 2023. In the view of investors, the Fed is most likely to have rates at 1.625% by the end of 2023 (Figure 1).