Hurricane Rafael, a powerful category 2 storm verging on category 3, was bearing down on western Cuba Wednesday morning. As of the 10 a.m. update, the National Hurricane Center noted it was “very likely” that Rafael could be a major hurricane by the time it strikes the island nation, which has recently been struggling with prolonged power outages.

The National Hurricane Center forecasts Tropical Storm Rafael to grow into the season’s 11th hurricane Tuesday as it moves toward Cuba with winds and storm surge expected to affect the Florida Keys this week.