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As an example, the dot plot released in December 2023 (below) showed a range of participants expectations from a low of 3.875%, a high of 5.37% and a median of 4.625% for year-end 2024 forecast.

Conditional questions are unanswerable. But in their indeterminacy, they highlight the fact that trying to time or game the market might not be the best idea.

Der Dot Plot-Zinsausblick der US-Notenbank sei dafür jedoch keine passende Methode, sagte Bundesbankchef Joachim Nagel. Die Federal Reserve veröffentlicht regelmäßig Zinsprognosen ihrer ...

The dot plot, published every three months since 2012, is a graph depicting where each of the 19 U.S. central bankers expect the Fed's policy rate to be at the end of each of the next few years.

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The dot plot showed a projected midpoint in the federal funds rate of 4.6% for 2024, suggesting the potential for three rate cuts from the previous midpoint of 5.4% at the end of 2023.

The bigger problem, though, is that even if the Fed kept the dot plot under wraps, the same problem would exist. The Fed has no forecasting superpowers. And that’s a problem for a few reasons.

Fed expected to announce interest rate decision this Wed. Markets expect rates to settle 5.25-5.50%. FOMC will release economic projections, dot plot, & revisiting Sept. projections. Sept ...