Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Friday signaled potential changes for the Fed's closely watched "dot plot" interest-rate projections as part of a broad policy framework review underway at ...

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Conditional questions are unanswerable. But in their indeterminacy, they highlight the fact that trying to time or game the market might not be the best idea.

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The Federal Reserve’s “dot plot” showed that officials project another half-percentage point of rate cuts in 2024 after today's 50 basis point cut.

The dot plot, published every three months since 2012, is a graph depicting where each of the 19 U.S. central bankers expect the Fed's policy rate to be at the end of each of the next few years.

The dot plot showed a projected midpoint in the federal funds rate of 4.6% for 2024, suggesting the potential for three rate cuts from the previous midpoint of 5.4% at the end of 2023.

The bigger problem, though, is that even if the Fed kept the dot plot under wraps, the same problem would exist. The Fed has no forecasting superpowers. And that’s a problem for a few reasons.

Fed Dot Plots March 2021 – September 2022. The first dot plot below is from March 2021. Recall what was happening then: Covid-19 vaccines were being rolled out, and the economy was growing at a ...