While the path is uncertain, a potential ceasefire could bring some respite to the region and could also have significant geopolitical and economic implications.

Russian state-owned defense analysts estimate that current arms sales from Russia total around $13.75 billion currently and will only increase following the ending of violence. Russia has been seeking an “ironclad” guarantee that would permanently exclude Ukraine from NATO members and require Kyiv to maintain a policy of neutrality as peace talks continue.