Each row represents a different model. The three bottom rows are Llama models from Meta. And as you can see, Llama 3.1 70B—a ...

The probabilistic framework, which describes how to represent and manipulate uncertainty about models and predictions, has a central role in scientific data analysis, machine learning, robotics ...

A five-minute formula from Alexander Denev that takes you through a simple probabilistic graphical model and explains how and why these are used. Find out more about the ground-breaking book, ...

Probability and Statistics Group research at the School of Mathematical and Computer Sciences at Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh.

The reason I devote another article to this subject is because I really think probabilistic thinking is a mental model that is enormously important yet often ignored by the general investing public.

In this paper, the authors present a general model of the recognition heuristic that assumes that objects’ recognition is random.

Probabilistic Election Forecasts Are Stupid and You Should Not Look at Them Also, Jonathan Alter previews tonight’s debate, Zephyr Teachout defends Kamala Harris’s price-gouging ban, and more ...

Traders in bonds and credit default swaps are bombarded with information on the default probabilities implied by credit spreads using a simple ratio.

Properties of P-P and Q-Q probability plots for visually assessing the fit of probability models are reviewed. It is shown how to construct families of curves for standardized P-P plots, which are ...