Here is that same graph from the next quarter showing that the 9/30/2019 curve is less inverted. You can see that the first part of the line, the 1-year rate, is still slightly higher than the ...

A yield curve is a graph on which bonds are represented ... When the blue line drops below the horizontal black line, the yield curve is inverted. Periods shaded gray represent economic recessions.

Chart 1: Inverted share seems to plateau around 25% ... We show that in Chart 2 as the green line. Imagine then we introduce a mini QQQ, which is 1/10 th the size and perfectly arbitragable.

So what's the big deal with all these lines on a graph? Well an inverted yield curve has predicted every recession since 1969. So now that the curve is inverted, is a recession imminent?

Represented by gray panels in the below chart, all six recessions were preceded by an inverted 10-2 spread, and each recession occurred less than two years after the 10-2 spread first inverted.