However, that number could wiggle upward or downward, depending on how an official inflation reading for September shakes out. Either way, though, you should expect 2025's Social Security COLA to be lower than the 3.2% raise that came through at the start of 2024.

The Social Security Administration will announce the 2025 cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) on Oct. 10, 2024. Until then, you can only make your best guess as to what it's going to be. The existing data suggests the COLA will be lower than what program recipients have seen in recent years.

Social Security plays a vital role in the lives of millions of Americans. Each year, retirees eagerly await the announcement of the cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) to their benefits. The COLA helps ensure that Social Security payments keep pace with inflation.